Tuesday, July 6, 2010

ANN1H1LATION

Re: H1N1 Outbreak, May 2009

This was my take on 3 May 2009 when the World Health Organisation first raised an worldwide alert and identified as H1N1 the virus that caused the pandemic in Mexico in Spring 2009:


Friday, June 18, 2010

A Watershed Year?

Re: Orchard Road Flood 2010

Wednesday, June 16, 2010 – A big flood happens in Singapore in a place where it is not supposed to happen: the famous shopping hub and tourist attraction of Singapore - Orchard Road.

The flood turned Orchard Road into a river of mud, with cars half-submerged and debris floating about. It was a scene one would have mistaken from television and newspaper pictures to be from Philippines, Thailand or Indonesia, never from first-world Singapore, and of Orchard Road to boot!

The last time a major flood happened in Orchard Road was in 1984. Because of this, the Stamford Canal was upgraded and widened to ensure that Orchard Road would never be flooded again.

That year, 1984, then turned out to be a watershed for Singapore. On December 22, 1984, Singapore went to the poll and, for the first time, the People’s Action Party, which had won every single seat in every general election held, lost 2 seats to the opposition!

With a general election widely expected this year, would 2010 similarly turn out to be another watershed for Singapore?

Well, there were occasional major floods in other places in Singapore, so why should the Orchard Road flood mean anything?

Maybe because floods, being often taken as signs from heaven, usually do not occur in carefully planned metropolitan areas with well thought-out drainage, such as what Orchard Road is. And Orchard Road, being the premier shopping attraction of Singapore, is truly the most recognized place of Singapore.

The flood happened in this high-class shopping belt during the annual GSS, i.e. the Great Singapore Sale. But Singaporeans who are tightening their belt, and who yet need to spend, will more likely have in their minds the other three-letter acronym also beginning with “GS”, i.e. GST, the Goods and Services Tax, which stayed at 7% through the recession.

Orchard Road has Electronic Road Pricing, the train line, buses and taxis, i.e. all the transportation components whose fares and charges are an issue to a fair number of residents.

Orchard Road has a large gathering of foreign maids (on Sundays in Lucky Plaza, which was seriously flooded) for whom the level of levy that local employers pay is also an issue to some families.

And Orchard Road has super luxurious $4,000+ per square foot properties that seem to emphasize the rich-poor divide to the average Singaporean going there.

Clogged culvert causing flood, or a sign of things to come?

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Mas-terminds



Re: Terrorist's escape, Singapore

Minster Mentor Lee names complacency and Mas Selamat’s cleverness in deceptively winning the trust of his captors as factors in his escape.

Michael Crichton, in the introduction to his book “The Great Train Robbery”, cites studies of prison populations that show that inmates equal the general public in intelligence tests – and yet they are only that fraction of lawbreakers who are caught. Needless to say, those who manage to stay free are of superior minds. Crichton then tells the true story of one such mastermind at work.

Being the leader of a criminal organisation, Mas Selamat would have intelligence above average. The likelihood then is that he would have been able to outsmart his immediate guards. For people of matching or higher intelligence would not have been assigned routine-type guard duties in the first place.

So some safeguards are needed. The guards’ supervisors, and their superiors, must have the ability to see through the tricks and guises of their captives; and they must make it a point to regularly monitor the interaction between captor and captive. Also, there have to be constant rotation of the guards for each captive so that no captive can gain any psychological control over his captor. A further measure is to deliberately disrupt every routine once in a while to prevent set patterns.

Whether these measures were already in place, or are indeed necessary, we will have to wait for the commissioner of inquiry’s report to find out.

Generally, people who succeed against high odds are not just intelligent; they are also very determined and disciplined. In a criminal mind, these traits are a lethal combination.

In the fight against terrorism, authorities worldwide seem to be forever chasing the lizard’s tail – banning steel cutlery after September 11, requiring young and old to remove their shoes after the shoe-bomber, throwing barricades around bars after Bali, heavily-armed guards conspicuously strolling through train stations after London, and forbidding mothers with babies from carrying bottled water aboard after learning of liquid-bomb plots. Authorities just do not seem to get ahead in the game of new attack scenarios.

Short of complacency, Mas Selamat’s escape, September 11, and so on, could be a case of underestimating the enemy – a case of not giving enough regard to top criminals' intelligence, their will, their guts, and their imagination.